Will Customers Actually Pay for Your Idea?

What's a Simulated Purchase Test?

It's exactly what it sounds like—you try to sell something that doesn't fully exist yet.

You create a realistic purchase experience for customers, take them through a buying process, and then at the final step, reveal it's a pre-order or coming soon.

It's not about tricking people. It's about measuring genuine purchase intent when real money is involved.

How a healthcare company avoided a $4M mistake

A big healthcare provider we worked with was convinced their new remote monitoring service would be a hit with health insurers. They were ready to invest $4M in building the full system.

Before they did, we ran a Simulated Purchase test. We created:

• A compelling service description

• A realistic pricing structure

• A proper purchase flow for insurance partners

We tracked how many decision-makers started the purchase process, how many continued after seeing the price, and who tried to complete the transaction.

The results were poor. While 60% of insurance partners showed interest in the concept, only 7% continued after seeing the pricing structure. The conversion rate was way below our viability threshold of 15%.

Through follow-up interviews with those customers, we discovered the problem wasn't the idea—it was the pricing model. Insurers wanted per-member pricing rather than the flat-fee structure the team had planned.

The team redesigned their business model before building anything, and when they eventually launched with the new structure, they hit a 22% conversion rate and avoided a £4M investment in the wrong approach.

How to run a Simulated Purchase test

To run this test, you're going to need:

• A realistic product/service description

• A well thought-out pricing structure

• A purchase flow that feels realistic

• A graceful "coming soon" experience for off-boarding at the end of the flow

  
  

1. Create a compelling offer

Make your product or service description as realistic and detailed as possible. Include features, benefits, and visuals that help potential customers understand exactly what they're buying.

2. Design a pricing structure

This is the heart of the test. Don't artificially lower prices to boost conversion. You're testing if people will pay what you need to charge to make the business work.

3. Build a purchase flow

Create a process that feels legitimate and requires increasing levels of commitment:

• Initial interest (clicking "Buy")

• Reviewing detailed information

• Enter contact information (for follow ups)

• Completing payment information

• Final confirmation

4. Be transparent at the right moment

At the final step, reveal that the product is coming soon. Offer a chance to join a waitlist, pre-order, or be notified when it launches. How you handle this step is crucial for maintaining trust.

5. Measure what matters

The most important metrics:

• Percentage who initiate purchase after seeing the offer

• Drop-off rate at pricing page

• Percentage who attempt to complete payment

• Pre-order or waitlist sign-ups

Common mistakes to avoid:

• Creating an unrealistic offering that over-promises

• Using placeholder pricing that doesn't reflect business realities

• Not capturing contact information for follow-up

• Measuring clicks rather than actual purchase attempts

• Failing to learn why people didn't convert

Try this now (within a week)

1. Create a simple landing page for your concept with real pricing.

2. Add a "Buy Now" button that leads to a waitlist sign-up.

3. Drive 100 relevant prospects to the page through your existing channels.

4. Track the percentage of people who click "Buy" after seeing the price.

That one metric will tell you more about the viability of your idea than months of customer interviews.